President Trump’s aim of making Iran quickly surrender and install a pro-US regime in Iran, as was done in Venezuela, has clearly failed. The war began with the US-Israeli strike on Iran on 28th February 2026, which no doubt killed Ayatollah Khameini and some of his top officials ( apart from killing 168 Iranian schoolgirls, and bombing hospitals, radio stations, etc ). But Iran’s constitutional structure is such that if one leader is killed he is only replaced by another, and so by no means can this be called a regime change.
After a 40 days war, Trump announced a 2 week ceasefire, on condition of opening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran agreed, but later again closed the Strait when Israel attacked Lebanon. Thereafter talks between the 2 sides were held in Islamabad, which failed. And now Trump has announced a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Can this succeed ?
The Chinese Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun has said that Chinese ships will keep going through the Strait
80-90% Iranian oil goes to China. Hence China is heavily dependent on Iranian oil
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-heavy-reliance-iranian-oil-imports-2026-03-21
China is a super power, not to be lightly trifled with, and it is not a Venezuela. It will certainly fight back if its oil tankers are stopped by US war ships. What form this fight back will take is of course another matter, on which there can be different opinions.
Apart from that, the IRGC ( Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps ) has said it will attack with missiles, drones, etc the US warships which attempt to blockade the Strait. Houthis in Yemen, and pro-Iran people elsewhere in the middle east, have said they will also do the same
So this declaration by Trump of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sounds like a lot of hot air, balderdash, stuff and nonsense, and empty braggadocio, since it cannot possibly be enforced.
So what now ?
There seem to be only 2 courses of action left for Trump :
(1) End the war against Iran.
But this would amount to an admission of defeat, which will be a tremendous loss of face for the Americans, and in particular for Trump, whose resignation will be immediately demanded by the American public for starting a stupid, unprovoked and unwarranted war, apart from invocation of the 25th US Constitutional Amendment for his removal from office.
Moreover, as explained in my article below, the real rulers of America are its big business class, and this class is divided into two groups: (a) the arms manufacturers, and (b) the rest. Often, as at the present juncture, the dominant of these two groups is the former.
The arms manufacturers thrive on wars because wars increase the demand for weapons, which in turn increases their profits. If there is peace, demand for weapons goes down, and this reduces their profits.
The arms industry, owned by private individuals, has grown over the years in the USA by leaps and bounds, ensuring huge profits for the arms manufacturers. These have a strong iron hold on U.S. politicians, including the President, Congressmen, and state officials. Through the media, it also seeks to control public opinion.
Hence, any attempt to stop the current war will be fiercely opposed by the powerful arms lobby.
https://indicanews.com/the-next-stage-in-the-u-s-iran-war
Also, mid term US Congress elections are due in November. Presently Republicans control both Houses of Congress, but their popularity is dwindling ( as opinion polls show ) since most Americans are against the war with Iran. So if the war is called off without a US victory, the rating of Republicans in the opinion polls will further plunge, because Americans will ask why this war was started at all in the first place ? Once the Republicans hold on the 2 Houses of Congress ends, Trump will become a lame duck President, a prospect he would hardly relish.
(2) So America must have a victory in this war, not a stalemate. But how is this victory to be achieved ?
Iran has shown the determination of its leaders, and resilience and unity of its people, indicating that it will not surrender come what may.
https://indicanews.com/a-new-form-of-guerrilla-war
https://indicanews.com/why-iran-will-win-the-war
Also it has the covert support of its Chinese and Russian allies, which are powerful nations secretly supplying defence technology to the Iranians.
So that leaves only one option left for Trump : nuke the whole of Iran, with its 93 million people, to hell.
https://www.punjabtodaynews.com/trump-iran-hitler-warning
Trump has often spoken of eradicating Iranian civilization, and sending Iran back into the stone age
So one would not be surprised if he actually does it, considering his unpredictable, unhinged, and deranged mindset
