The US government and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire for 2 weeks. The question is whether the ceasefire will continue thereafter ? My opinion is that it will, but for explaining my reasons one has to go deeper into the matter :
The real ruler of America is not its President Donald Trump but its big business class. This class is broadly divided into 2 groups (1) the arms manufacturers, which consist of gigantic companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, RTX Corporation, Northrop Grumman, etc (2) the rest.
https://www.exportusa.eu/military-supplies-united-states.php
Of these 2, often the former are the dominant group, who control broad US policies, through their agents, the US politicians.
The arms manufacturers are pro-war, as war generates demand for their products, and thus increases their profits.
Former US President Eisenhower in his 1961 farewell address warned of the “military-industrial complex“—the dangerous convergence of a massive military establishment and a large private arms industry. He cautioned that this alliance, growing in the Cold War era, could gain unwarranted influence and threaten democratic processes and peace, advising that only an alert citizenry could protect against it.
https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/president-dwight-d-eisenhowers-farewell-address
However, Eisenhower’s advice was ignored, and the arms manufacturers continued to grow and become more and more powerful, demanding the US government to wage regular wars ( so as to continue and increase their profits ). Hence, when one war by America ended, another began after some time. Thus, the Korean war was followed by the Vietnam war, the Iraq war, the Afghanistan war, and now the Iran war. There were many smaller wars also.
This being so, how can I then say that the 2 weeks peace between the United States and Iran will continue even thereafter ? Will not the arms manufacturers put pressure on Trump to continue the war, so that demand for their weapons continues, or is increased ?
My answer is that undoubtedly the arms manufacturers will put such pressure on the US government. But there is another pressure on the US government, and that is the steadily growing pressure of the American public to stop this war, which not only the majority of the American public perceive as immoral and unjustified, is gradually hitting them hard economically too.
Wars are very expensive affairs ( each Tomahawk missile costs 2.5 million dollars ). A lengthy war will cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Now Trump has proposed a 1.5 trillion dollars defence expenditure in the 2027 US budget, a 50% increase over last year
Where will all this money come from ?
This money can only come from increased taxation on the American people, while drastically slashing expenditure on health, education, pensions, etc. Already gas prices and cost of living have gone up.
The American public have responded by massive ‘No Kings’ demonstrations on the streets of US cities, in which millions participated.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq8wy7g1gd1o
Also, many people in middle eastern countries e.g. Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqis, etc have risen up in support of Iran, and more would have followed suit if the war had continued.
Hence despite the pressure of the arms manufacturers to continue the war, Trump had to yield before this greater pressure.
Some people think that the war will continue since Israel was not part of the US-Iran agreement, and it will continue attacking Iran.
Such people forget that Israel cannot survive for long without US weapons and other aid. In fact Israel is nothing but a Western military garrison planted by the Westerners in the heart of the middle east to ensure safe supply of oil from there to the Western countries, as explained below :
https://indicanews.com/justice-markandey-katju-what-is-israel
https://medium.com/katju-korner/the-legitimacy-of-israel-a-historical-perspective-79127cb5c2ed
To think that Israel can act independently of the US is a totally false notion. For taking any important decision Israel must take the permission of the US government.
So the ceasefire will continue well beyond 2 weeks ( though there may be some short sporadic incidents ).
However, after things have subsided ( maybe after a few months or years ), the US arms manufacturers will again put great pressure on the US government to start another war somewhere in the globe. After all, the vampire must be kept replenished with human blood regularly
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