Recent developments in Nepal need a deep analysis of the situation.
It all started on Monday, 8th September 2025 with protests by Nepalese youth, led by an organization called gen-Z, against social media bans by the government, and corruption, which turned violent in the capital Kathmandu and other cities. Homes and offices of several political leaders, including that of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, were attacked, and many set ablaze. The police opened fire killing 19 protestors ( the death toll has now gone up to 30 ). Curfew was imposed in many cities, including Kathmandu, and the army has been called out. All flights have been suspended. Prime Minister Oli has resigned.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crkj0lzlr3ro
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/10/asia/nepal-protests-gen-z-outcome-intl-hnk
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/10/nepal-gen-z-protests-corruption
How does one explain this sudden turn of events ?
Various theories have been advanced on the Indian and world media, giving the causes of the violence as resentment against the social media ban ( which apparently triggered the events ), widespread corruption of top political leaders, high unemployment among the youth, etc. However, I will present my own view.
No doubt all the abovementioned evils were present in Nepal, and these had been festering for long, but one has to probe deeper into the recent events to understand them correctly..
Today, there are two powerful alliances in the world (1) the US-Europe alliance, and (2) the China-Russia alliance. These two are hostile to each other, but they do not fight each other militarily due to the existence of nuclear weapons which both have, and which would destroy both if they fight militarily. Hence they fight through proxies. To my mind the events in Nepal are a proxy war between these two powerful alliances.
Nepal is a small country with a population of about 30 million people, which is tiny compared to its northern and southern neighbours, China and India, both of which have populations of over 1400 million people. But it is strategically located, between its two big neighbours.
Prime Minister Oli is a communist, and was taking Nepal into closer ties with China
https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=12148&lid=7407
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/202508/t20250830_11698944.html
This must have infuriated President Trump and his close advisers, as they saw Nepal in cahoots with the main US enemy, China.
My own guess is that the Americans were behind the widespread protests in Nepal, as they would not have liked Nepal becoming a part of the Sino-Russian alliance. No doubt there was home grown anger in Nepal, particularly among the youth, over the social media ban, corruption, high unemployment, etc. But largescale protests on the scale which were witnessed requires financing and other means of support, and these must have been provided by the Americans who could not see lying low Nepal becoming a protege, lackey, and acolyte of China. No doubt there is no direct evidence of such support, but one can draw logical inferences.
The Nepalese army led by Gen Ashok Raj Sigdel has now practically taken over Nepal, and most army leaders in underdeveloped countries are known to be pro-West and anti-communist.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-11/nepal-army-retakes-control-of-kathmandu-after-riots/105760022
But China would not be happy over this turn of events, as it challenges its dominance over Nepal, which is crucial for its control over Tibet and other areas, and its growing economic needs of raw materials, etc. It will surely react ( though one cannot predict how ), and we are likely to witness a US-China proxy war in Nepal in the coming times.
https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/us-china-contest-nepal
A long period of turbulence seems to be ahead for Nepal
